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      CommentAuthorGrimer
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2009
     
    Posted By: evolvealready
    Posted By: Grimer
    Posted By: evolvealreadyWell, I am just explaining MY use of logically possible, which is shared by the textbooks. But we can use another if you like. The main point is that we agree it ain't gonna happen.

    Will you promise to jump out of a 10th floor window if it does. If it's not going to happen why not? Or if you don't want to go that far what about betting me £100,000 pounds to a penny that it won't happen in our lifetime. If it ain't going to happen, why not. Put your money where your mouth is. That shows is a quantifiable way just how sure you are that it ain't going to happen.
    I have promised to give 1,000 to charity if it happens. The terms are (I think still) listed on the other forum.


    Ooo! Good for you. You have indeed put your money where your mouth is. I do vaguely remember your promise actually, but I didn't have it firmly connected with your name. I plead age as my excuse.
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    No problem Frank :)
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      CommentAuthorGrimer
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2009 edited
     
    And whilst on the subject of "impossible" events there's a very interesting economist who has written a book, I think its called The Black Swan. The theme of the book is that improbable events happen more frequently than people imagine. Until Oz was discovered all swans were white so the black swan broke the rule -. I was on a forum where this subject came up and one poster piped up and said, "There's no such thing as a black swan." His general knowledge was obviously deficient but it did prove the point rather nicely.

    Edit: Here's the wiki reference.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2009
     
    @ the old "tail of the probability distribution" problem - been around for years: what is the meaning of a probability of 10^-37?

    Zero works for me.
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      CommentAuthorGrimer
    • CommentTimeOct 23rd 2009 edited
     
    Have you read the book, Angus?
    Enough of this chatter - My sleepy time calls.
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    Now we are going to discuss probability theory with someone who thinks that 12 x 0 = something other than 0 ?
    And who misuses the idea of interaction between levels of several variables in ANOVA to try to convince us that a hypothetical magnet or gravity wheel device could produce interaction effects when the "main effects" are all null?

    Anyone want to get up a little friendly game of poker? After all, according to Frank's black swan, rare events occur more frequently than...than what? Than perceived by "folk statisticians"? Or than they are predicted to occur by probability theory?
    Oh, it's "more frequently than people imagine." So all those kids playing hoops, dreaming of becoming NBA starters, should forget about school and spend more time honing their free throws, because being drafted happens more frequently than people imagine. Or you should buy more lottery tickets, because you winning the lottery happens more frequently than people imagine. Or....oh, never mind. I think these must be the same "people" who believe that the rock will go radially outward when the string is released.
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    But developing a free energy machine is not like picking the winning lottery numbers in your local or national lottery. It's like buying a ticket for a lottery that evidence says does not exist--and then winning.
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      CommentAuthormaryyugo
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2009 edited
     
    I don't know about the book but it's used as rationalization for all manner of silly paranormal claims which, if they were true which they are not, could easily be demonstrated by obvious mean-- obvious tests that the proponents find inumerable excuses not to perform.

    ... improbable events happen more frequently than people imagine.
    I'm not sure what that says, exactly. Is it that non-scientists and non-mathematicians don't understand probability and tend to think scarce events are even more scarce than they are? If so, so what? The probability of an improbable event, if it's accurately known, describes the situation. What more do you need? Why?
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      CommentAuthorNoSideSam
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2009
     
    Posted By: evolvealready It's like buying a ticket for a lottery that evidence says does not exist--and then winning.


    But this can really happen. I just got an email telling me that I won the Irish lottery. (I didn’t even know that I was entered.) All I had to do was send them my bank account info and they are going to direct deposit my winnings!!!
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      CommentAuthormaryyugo
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2009
     
    And the most amazing part is that they think your name is Blessed Friend.
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2009 edited
     
    Posted By: evolvealreadyBut developing a free energy machine is not like picking the winning lottery numbers in your local or national lottery. It's like buying a ticket for a lottery that evidence says does not exist--and then winning.

    It's like trying to win the lottery with a ticket you made yourself using a big red crayon and an old telephone bill.
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2009
     
    Posted By: BigOilRep
    Posted By: evolvealreadyBut developing a free energy machine is not like picking the winning lottery numbers in your local or national lottery. It's like buying a ticket for a lottery that evidence says does not exist--and then winning.

    It's like trying to win the lottery with a ticket you made yourself using a big red crayon and an old telephone bill.


    For that one I actually did laugh out loud!
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2009 edited
     
    Posted By: GrimerHave you read the book, Angus?


    Yes, with a probability of 10^-37
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    Hmmm...I haven't read Taleb's book, but I just read the Wiki summary that Frank linked.

    I don't see "improbable events occur more frequently than people imagine", or anything like that, in the Wiki review. It looks to me like Taleb might be making a rational argument.

    "His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected—while humans convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight (bias)." (from the Wiki)

    I think this is very different from what Frank said.
    But then I haven't read the book...and I'm not tempted to, at this point.
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      CommentAuthorGrimer
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2009
     
    Well at least I managed to get a discussion going and keep the wheels rolling on this forum.
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      CommentAuthorpcstru
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2009
     
    Posted By: GrimerWell at least I managed to get a discussion going and keep the wheels rolling on this forum.


    Did you take a couple of Troll pills yesterday Frank?
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      CommentAuthorGrimer
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2009
     
    Posted By: pcstru
    Posted By: GrimerWell at least I managed to get a discussion going and keep the wheels rolling on this forum.


    Did you take a couple of Troll pills yesterday Frank?

    My normal dose is three, actually.
    • CommentAuthorloreman
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2009
     
    Well I sat in a restaurant in Melbourne a week ago and watched the black swans sail serenely past on the lake. This was completely unexpected (but very pleasant).

    So how could you ever tell that energy was "newly created" energy and hadn't come from somewhere else?
    • CommentAuthorcwatters
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2009
     
    Posted By: evolvealreadyBut developing a free energy machine is not like picking the winning lottery numbers in your local or national lottery. It's like buying a ticket for a lottery that evidence says does not exist--and then winning.


    or buying all 1,000,000 tickets, counting them and discovering you have 1,000,100 ... and still not winning.
    • CommentAuthorjoshs
    • CommentTimeOct 24th 2009
     
    Posted By: BigOilRepCrank has never revealed the extent of her connections to Steorn - how is she just running into investors and knowing who they are?

    She has also hinted at numerous visits to the Steorn offices.
    Did anyone ever seriously look to see if Ireland has tax credits that could make an intentionally doomed failure potentially profitable for wealthy investors?