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      CommentAuthorgoatcheez
    • CommentTimeMay 18th 2020
     
    Here's the source code. This is why I hate programming:

    view-source:https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1539110/embed?auto=1
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      CommentAuthorDuracell
    • CommentTimeMay 18th 2020
     
    Posted By: alsetalokinhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

    1.4 %


    Well that certainly would land in the 1.16% to 1.86% range suggested by the 5% seroprevalence from the studies done in France and Spain. From the C19 news thread:

    Posted By: Duracellhttps://mobile.twitter.com/zeynep/status/1260639316331638785

    Today both France and Spain (two badly hit countries) have come out with seroprevalence numbers. (France is a model, paper linked below. Spain was representative sample/survey of 60K; I don't have the paper yet). Both are ~5 percent. If that holds up, that is very very bad news.


    So far, Spain officially has 27,104 Covid-19 deaths. Looking at the excess deaths for Spain though, the true figure is probably +60% higher than that. If the 5% figure from the Spanish study above holds up, then the 70% required for herd immunity would potentially cost an additional 380k lives PLUS probably another 60% on top of that as well = 607k.

    Going from the lower number above, the official number of Covid-19 deaths per million people in Spain is currently = 580. So if that 5% above is correct then the IFR lands somewhere between 1.16% and 1.86%

    An IFR of 1.86% would mean > 100 million deaths globally...
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      CommentAuthoralsetalokin
    • CommentTimeMay 18th 2020 edited
     
    Yep. So in the USA if we need 67 percent of the population to have survived the infection in order to have protective herd immunity (always assuming that mild infections actually produce immunity) that means approximately
    0.67 x 330,000,000 = 221100000 infections and
    221100000 infections x 0.015 infection fatality rate = over 3 million people dead in the USA. Three times the entire population of this city.
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      CommentAuthoralsetalokin
    • CommentTimeMay 18th 2020 edited
     
    Which of course means, to everyone with any kind of soul, that going for herd immunity without any mitigation is unacceptable.

    Which means that someone has to decide at some point just how many deaths _are_ acceptable, and balance that figure against needed mitigation.

    All the while praying, conjuring, hoping, and some people are even working hard to create a working vaccine and a survivable therapy and maybe even a prophylaxis.
  1.  
    worldometer worldwide figures as of today 21 May 2020:

    5,194,099 cases
    334,616 deaths

    Both numbers are certainly too low. The question is, which one is too lower? That is, which undercount reflects the true infection fatality rate, or do they simply cancel out and make that horrible 6+ percent calculated IFR real?
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020
     
    The Swedes are reporting a 7.3% rate for antibodies in Stockholm. The total death toll for the country is 3800 right now, and the population just over 10M. Making the dodgy assumption that Stockholm is representative of the country the fatality rate would be about 0.5%.
  2.  
    In itself a sufficiently horrible number.

    Maybe they take better care of their elderly in general, so haven't had the terrible clusters in nursing homes and long-term care facilities. I wouldn't be surprised.
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      CommentAuthorDuracell
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020
     
    Roughly half of the covid-19 deaths in Sweden so far have been in care homes.
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      CommentAuthorDuracell
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020 edited
     
    Posted By: AngusThe Swedes are reporting a 7.3% rate for antibodies in Stockholm. The total death toll for the country is 3800 right now, and the population just over 10M. Making the dodgy assumption that Stockholm is representative of the country the fatality rate would be about 0.5%.
    It was 7.3% a few weeks ago at the end of April.The excess deaths in Stockholm up until then were 1,800.



    Stockholm has a population of 974,073. Assuming Covid-19 is responsible for somewhere between half and all of those excess deaths would yield an IFR between 1.26% and 2.53%.

    There is a growing body of evidence suggesting an IFR between 1.4% and 2.0% for Covid-19.
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020
     
    Thanks. That's a better calculation.
  3.  
    Posted By: AngusThanks. That's a better calculation.


    So in the USA, seasonal flu is supposed to have IFR of about 0.1 percent, roughly a twentieth of that growing body of evidence number. If we lose 40 thousand persons to the flu per year.... it still adds up to aw fuck. Two pecks of aw fuck is almost as bad as a bushel.
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      CommentAuthorDuracell
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020
     
    Without a vaccine or an effective treatment we are looking at > 100 million deaths globally. The catastrophic economic carnage inflicted by attempts to prevent some of those > 100 million deaths will probably also cause > 100 million additional deaths as well.
  4.  
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020 edited
     
    Posted By: DuracellThere is a growing body of evidence suggesting an IFR between 1.4% and 2.0% for Covid-19.

    I know this is moletrap, so everyone loves the worst case scenario, but 2% seems above most expert analysis. This meta analysis puts it at 0.49% - 1.01%


    The meta-analysis demonstrated a point-estimate of IFR of 0.75% (0.49-1.01%) with significant heterogeneity (p<0.001). Conclusion: Based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of published evidence on COVID-19 until the end of April, 2020, the IFR of the disease across populations is 0.75% (0.49-1.01%). However, due to very high heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, it is difficult to know if this represents the "true" point estimate. It is likely that different places will experience different IFRs. More research looking at age-stratified IFR is urgently needed to inform policy-making on this front.


    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2

    Which is interestingly not to far off the world mortality rate estimate of 0.77%. Whether C19 has any significant impact on world mortality remains to be seen - some seem to think it works as a mortality "compressor" - bringing forward the year's mortality into a shorter time span.


    Though this mortality estimate is higher.

    The asymptote of this function gives the global IFR. Applying this asymptotic estimator to cumulative COVID-19 data from 139 countries reveals a global IFR of 1.04% (CI: 0.77%,1.38%)

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20098780v1

    Other research finds much, much lower IFR in many locations with an upper range of 0.5%.


    Results Twelve studies were identified with usable data to enter into calculations. Seroprevalence
    estimates ranged from 0.113% to 25.9% and adjusted seroprevalence estimates ranged from
    0.309% to 33%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.03% to 0.50% and corrected values ranged
    from 0.02% to 0.40%.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.full.pdf
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020
     
    Basically much more analysis is required. I wonder if a population IFR is even that helpful, given the highly discriminatory way this virus kills. A hypothetical country of children and teens would have more deaths through lightening strikes.
  5.  
    That's heavy
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020
     
    How much of the IFR is offset by a reduction in traffic fatalities under quarantines?
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020 edited
     
    Posted By: AngusHow much of the IFR is offset by a reduction in traffic fatalities under quarantines?

    Errm, traffic fatalities are down, but actually up per mile driven:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52753925

    You hear this anecdotally in the UK - people using the empty roads like race tracks.
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020
     
    I mean, the virus has a long way to catch up with the deadliness of motor vehicles - which kill 1.2 million directly every year and probably many millions more indirectly through pollution.

    And much, much further to catch up with cigarettes which kill 8 million people per year. If only there was something we could do about it....
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020
     
    Quarantine won't affect igarette fatalities but it might reduce deaths due to pollution, also industrial accidents. Any prospect for negative excess deaths?