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    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020
     
    Posted By: AngusQuarantine won't affect igarette fatalities


    Millions in UK smoking more amid coronavirus crisis, study suggests


    but it might reduce deaths due to pollution

    Hmm...these are usually shortening of lifespan due to long term exposure. Would be sceptical how much difference a few months of clear air will make - though maybe this will be the kick up the arse we need to clean our cities up long term.


    industrial accidents.

    There were only 148 workplace deaths in the UK last year - much of this in manufacturing, agriculture and construction - much of which are still going. Or in the case of construction gearing back up quickly.

    I did see initial analysis that deaths for 20-24 year old men were down 35% during the lock down....from the 5 year average of 89 to 58. Not exactly big numbers.
    •  
      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020
     
    How many 20-24 year old men died from covid-19?

    (You have to massage the data with every available tool.)
  1.  
    Posted By: BigOilRepNot exactly big numbers.


    Channelling Donald Trump now? The numbers are not exactly big.... but if one of them is you, or your own son or daughter, does it matter how big the numbers actually are? Every death is a death of someone's mother, daughter, father, son. Every one. Even ONE SINGLE DEATH is too many.

    Not exactly big numbers. I feel sorry for your loss of your soul.
  2.  
    How about 14? Fourteen isn't exactly a big number, is it?

    If the USA had started strong social distancing just 14 days earlier than we did... TENS OF THOUSANDS of lives could have been saved. Tens of thousands of people, fathers mothers sons daughters, would still be alive who are now DEAD.

    14 is not exactly a big number. 92 thousand.... not even a big number compared to 330 million, it's just a drop in the bucket, a rounding error really.

    Excuse me while I go puke.
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeMay 22nd 2020
     
    Posted By: alsetalokin
    Posted By: BigOilRepNot exactly big numbers.


    Channelling Donald Trump now? The numbers are not exactly big.... but if one of them is you, or your own son or daughter, does it matter how big the numbers actually are? Every death is a death of someone's mother, daughter, father, son. Every one. Even ONE SINGLE DEATH is too many.

    My "not exactly big numbers" was referring to a reduction in mortality in 20-24 year olds. In this case from 89 individuals to 58 over the lockdown. And yes, that's good news, less young men died, but out of a population of 70 million they are small numbers and won't balance out the 100s of thousands who will die from C19. Or the 600,000 who die every year in the UK anyway - that's a big number.


    Not exactly big numbers. I feel sorry for your loss of your soul.

    Why don't you actually read my post properly before being such a self-righteous prick?

    I've never seen you quite so concerned about the 9 million people who die every single year from hunger. Or the 1.6 million who die horribly from diarrhea, or the 1.5 million who die from TB. But I guess you aren't in those risk groups?
    •  
      CommentAuthorDuracell
    • CommentTimeMay 23rd 2020 edited
     
    Posted By: BigOilRepBasically much more analysis is required. I wonder if a population IFR is even that helpful, given the highly discriminatory way this virus kills. A hypothetical country of children and teens would have more deaths through lightening strikes.
    That sounds a bit like special pleading to me. Most fatal illnesses disproportionately kill the elderly, the unhealthy, the compromised and the immunosuppressed etc., but we don’t seem to have any problems assigning them IFRs and discussing them. Why would we treat Covid-19 any differently? The seasonal flu always kills more old people and people with ill health than it does young and healthy people but we don’t usually seem to feel the need to point that out when we mention its IFR of 0.1% in Covid-19 discussions.

    However, having said that, I do agree that the shape of mortality curve by age usually describes one of the defining characteristics of any disease, e.g.: usual U shape of influenza’s curve highlighting that the very young and the very old are disproportionately affected, and the W shape of the 1918 pandemic’s curve highlighting that people in what would have been expected to have been the prime of their lives were also very badly affected, etc. One of Covid-19’s defining characteristics clearly is that the very young seem to far less affected than we might usually expect, notwithstanding the Kawasaki Syndrome like illness being reported in relatively small numbers.

    I still think the evidence suggesting that the IFR is significantly higher than 0.5% is growing and I suspect that the range between 1.4% and 2.0% that I suggested might not be as far off the mark as you think.
  3.  
    I predict USA total CoVid-19 deaths to be 135-138 thousand at the end of August as the daily new death rate approaches zero.

    There may be a lull before a devastating Second Wave during fall and winter, or deaths may continue at a low but relatively steady rate for the next indefinite time period.

    Or... the effects of the "reopening" and the unrest have not yet been seen, and we will have to revise our estimations when they start showing up in the curves.
  4.  
    Posted By: DuracellI still think the evidence suggesting that the IFR is significantly higher than 0.5% is growing and I suspect that the range between 1.4% and 2.0% that I suggested might not be as far off the mark as you think.

    I keep getting around 2.5% from reported numbers, and it doesn't seem to get much lower as more and more widespread testing is included.
    But as testing becomes widespread there is also confusion about antibody vs. active virus testing. Some locales report them separately, some lump them together, some don't report in a timely manner, etc. Chaos trickles down.
    •  
      CommentAuthoralsetalokin
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2020 edited
     
    Laurie Garret citing Morgan Stanley says Rnought is around 1.1 or a little higher, and even at this low spreading value we will have a quarter of a million deaths by mid September.
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2020
     
    IFR for the UK currently estimated at around 0.8-1%


    Emerging estimates of past and current infection prevalence in conjunction with total COVID-19 deaths could also be used to calibrate the model, noting that the 0·63% (95% CI 0·45–0·79) infection-fatality rate (IFR) suggested by Davies and colleagues' model might underestimate the true IFR in the UK. New seroprevalence data indicate 6·8% (5·2–8·6) of the UK population have had previous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection as of May 24.3 With 36 000 deaths, this suggests an IFR of 0·8%; with 44 000 deaths (using death certificate data4), this suggests an IFR of 1·0%.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30135-3/fulltext
    •  
      CommentAuthoralsetalokin
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2020 edited
     
    One fatality per one hundred infections, counting "mild" and asymptomatic cases. At least ten times more deadly than the seasonal influenzas then. And with R0 > 1 even by a little... that means a lot more people have yet to die of this virus before anything resembling "herd immunity" becomes protective of those of us who cannot afford to contract the disease.
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2020
     
    I think this is the quandary. Everyone has done their lockdown but now need to work out what to do next and the science isn't very clear.

    Looks like countries just hope to keep the R value low and protect the vulnerable until the vaccine arrives Soon (TM).
    •  
      CommentAuthoraber0der
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2020
     
    Is there a dataset/webshite that uses statistical death rates instead of confirmed covid-19 cases?
    •  
      CommentAuthorDuracell
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2020
     
    Posted By: aber0derIs there a dataset/webshite that uses statistical death rates instead of confirmed covid-19 cases?
    Yes, excess mortality is the measure used here: https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 for:



    and:

    •  
      CommentAuthoraber0der
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2020
     
    Thankyou, dankdir.
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2020 edited
     
    Though of course we aren't really sure how many excess deaths are due to C19 and how many are due to the lockdown and fundamental shifts in the way society is organised.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-way-covid-deaths-are-being-counted-is-a-national-scandal

    and how the lockdown (or the reaction to the lockdown anyway) might be killing :

    https://pagetwo.completecolorado.com/2020/06/11/dierenbach-the-coronavirus-response-has-been-deadly/

    Cancer referrals are down two thirds in the UK - that's a frightening figure.

    This BMJ article also agrees we don't know what is causing excess deaths, but tends towards thinking they are mainly corona.

    https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2295


    The stats will take a lot of unpicking over the next few months.
    •  
      CommentAuthorping1400
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2020
     
    I understood from Dutch statistics suicides were down by a lot in the corona peak period.
    •  
      CommentAuthoraber0der
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2020
     
    But other statistics suggest that people don't like eachother that much. It's like an unemployment stress-test and it shows - something.
    •  
      CommentAuthorping1400
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2020
     
    In April-May period the police in The Netherlands counted 20% less suicides but an increase of 20% of “confused” people. The second number relates to your stressed and don’t like eachother that much people I think.
    •  
      CommentAuthoraber0der
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2020
     
    Possibly, yes.