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with regional estimates of the predicted COVID-19 IFR ranging from 0.43% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.83% for Eastern Europe.
Data from early in the pandemic overestimated how deadly the virus was, and then later analyses underestimated its lethality. Now, numerous studies — using a range of methods — estimate that in many countries some 5 to 10 people will die for every 1,000 people with COVID-19. “The studies I have any faith in are tending to converge around 0.5–1%,” says Russell.
Kilpatrick and others say they are eagerly awaiting large studies that estimate fatality rates across age groups and among those with pre-existing health conditions, which will provide the most accurate picture of how deadly the disease is. One of the first studies to account for the effect of age was posted on a preprint server last week. The study, based on seroprevalence data from Geneva, Switzerland, estimates an IFR of 0.6% for the total population, and an IFR of 5.6% for people aged 65 and older.
The results have not been peer reviewed, but Kilpatrick says the study addresses many of the issues in previous seroprevalence surveys. "This study is fantastic. It’s precisely what should be done with all of the serological data," he says.
Posted By: alsetalokinNow every time I do the math I'm getting 5 percent.
On screen right now:
Global:
9,504,233 cases
484,356 fatalities
USA:
2,404,781 cases
122,320 fatalities
I thought as testing becomes more widespread, case fatality rate is supposed to go down. But it has not.
Am I having decimal point issues again? Or is the aw fuck continuing to get worser and worser?
Posted By: alsetalokinNow every time I do the math I'm getting 5 percent.
On screen right now:
Global:
9,504,233 cases
484,356 fatalities
USA:
2,404,781 cases
122,320 fatalities
I thought as testing becomes more widespread, case fatality rate is supposed to go down. But it has not.
Am I having decimal point issues again? Or is the aw fuck continuing to get worser and worser?
A study of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which spent most of February in quarantine off Japan while the virus spread through passengers and crew, found that 72 per cent of infections were asymptomatic. The UK ONS survey yielded a similar result, finding that 70 per cent of people infected never showed any symptoms. Government data in China have indicated that 60 per cent of all coronavirus cases logged in April showed no symptoms.
Officially recorded cases exclude the far larger numbers who were infected but not tested because their symptoms were non-existent or mild. That total is unknown but runs to tens of millions of people around the world, according to mathematical modelling based on the available statistics.
The “infection fatality rate” — the proportion of those infected who die — depends on local circumstances but is typically in the 0.5 to 1 per cent range. A study by Imperial College London of the epidemic in China found an IFR of 0.66 per cent. Meta-analysis by Australian epidemiologists who pulled together 25 studies around the world calculated that the average IFR was 0.64 per cent.
Posted By: aber0derIt depends on the quality and quantity of med facilities, I guess.
Posted By: alsetalokinAhh... here's how to make the case fatality rate go down. CDC announces that the true prevalence could be 10 times the "officially reported" figures. So that 5 percent I keep calculating goes down to 0.5 percent, an order of magnitude less aw fuck (and five times the accepted figure for influenza) , but still sufficient enough to be horrible.Also, don't forget the excess mortality in the USA was at least 122k on May 23rd, +30% higher than the 91k "official" covid-19 deaths reported at that time.
But that "could be" is the critical unknown. I checked on three testing sites in San Antonio yesterday, and none are doing seroprevalence antibody testing, they are all "just" doing PCR for active virus.
Posted By: AngusThe young do stupid things without the benefit of health care.