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    A pal of mine works in a South Dakota VA clinic and reported recently on how things lie in Trumptard country. People are strenuously objecting to being told to wash their hands and to wear masks. They come in maskless and even push past staff to get to the desks. They appear to be in a state of perpetual high and irrational anger, and regard the requests as "something the LIBERALS told you to say", and similar twaddle.

    The level of this brainwashing seems to be quite concentrated; indeed, on average the police have to be called twice daily.

    Perhaps this should really be in the Propaganda thread.
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2020
     
    Posted By: BigOilRepit becomes a bit of an abstract concept.


    You mean an abstract concept like restraining yourself from stealing candy from babies or not rifling the till when no one is looking? The abstract concept here is called "The General Good", and if some group finds it too abstract for contemplation, the society itself will turn into a warring mob of individuals, or possibly something like the present USA.
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2020
     
    Posted By: Angus
    You mean an abstract concept like restraining yourself from stealing candy from babies or not rifling the till when no one is looking? The abstract concept here is called "The General Good", and if some group finds it too abstract for contemplation, the society itself will turn into a warring mob of individuals, or possibly something like the present USA.

    I'm not defending it, I'm just saying that's the way people's brains work. The lock down has had good cross society support here, including from younger people and they do recognise the common good. However you can intellectually grasp and agree with something, but intuitively act differently. Which is why we saw the streets of Soho packed with young people having a drink and socialising this last weekend. It's not like they were going "ha, fuck grandma", they were just enjoying themselves.

    There are enough degrees of separation between having a cocktail with your friends and an 85 year old dying in a nursing home that people don't always grasp it (especially after several cocktails) - unlike stealing from a baby (which is a poor analogy and misses the point).

    The common good works both ways as well. We are leaving the next generation with a staggering amount of debt and deprived many of their education, adversely affecting their life outcomes, possibly even reducing their life spans. Which is probably a fairly abstract concept for you, as you'll be dead by then.
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeJul 11th 2020 edited
     
    I take your point that continous diligence is required and desires may have to be intentionally modified to achieve the common good. I hope and assume that errors such as parties are lapses of attention rather than evil intent. Samesame with the mostly unappreciated struggle of my generation to provide the good things of life (abundant food, universal communications, cheap travel, reduced poverty worldwide) to the next one. The attendant debt, social upheaval and whatnot was an error not due to evil intent.

    You are pointing out that assessing intent is important for laying blame. This lesson needs to be remembered in discussions about insensitive language (q.v.).
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      CommentAuthoralsetalokin
    • CommentTimeJul 31st 2020 edited
     
    July 30, 3:21 pm ET:

    Total cases 4471425
    Deaths 152814

    Infection fatality rate 0.03417568224894748318489072275616833559771213874771...
    or more accurately, between 3 and 4 deaths per hundred identified cases. Whereas the number for seasonal influenza is usually given as one death per thousand cases.

    I thought expanded testing was supposed to make this number get smaller. When does that start happening?
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      CommentAuthoralsetalokin
    • CommentTimeAug 13th 2020 edited
     
    Everybody keeps saying that this pandemic is not going to be a species-extinction or even a civilization-ending event, that we will quickly recover a semblance of normalcy and go on being humans, doing human things.

    But it seems to me that only a small increase in severity could push the pandemic over some kind of threshold, whereby it would indeed be a civlization-ending or extinction event. In terms of Case Fatality Ratio and infectivity parameter R0, just how much worse, quantitatively, can it get before that threshold is exceeded? Right now we seem to have CFR about 3 percent and Rnought slightly over unity, and things sure seem pretty bad already. And in superspreader events we see Rnought can go into the hundreds.
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      CommentAuthorpcstru
    • CommentTimeAug 13th 2020
     
    If it gets worse, we might soon have as many deaths worldwide caused by Covid as are caused every year by starvation.
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeAug 13th 2020 edited
     
    Here's another plague to round out the locusts, pestilences, fires, floods, storms and Wee Donald
    • CommentAuthorAsterix
    • CommentTimeAug 13th 2020
     
    They need more dogs. In the 90s, voles were decimating my seedling plantings. Set my two retrievers on after them and they'd dig the little buggers out and eat them whole. Squeek! Crunch-crunch. In a single outting they'd eat their fill, while destroying nests. Cut down on the dog food bill, it did.
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    mmmm vole!
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeAug 13th 2020
     
    Posted By: pcstruIf it gets worse, we might soon have as many deaths worldwide caused by Covid as are caused every year by starvation.

    It's got a long way to go - 9 million are estimated to die from hunger and related diseases. It still has to catch up with motor vehicle accidents and TB before it can play with the big boys.

    I doubt it will ever catch up with tobacco smoking, which kills 7 million a year. No lockdowns for that yet...
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeAug 13th 2020
     

    But it seems to me that only a small increase in severity could push the pandemic over some kind of threshold, whereby it would indeed be a civlization-ending or extinction event. In terms of Case Fatality Ratio and infectivity parameter

    You love your doom porn. World population numbers will be higher next year, I will take a bet on that - it will probably grow by the usual 85 million and C19 won't even dent it.

    Posted By: alsetalokinRight now we seem to have CFR about 3 percent and Rnought slightly over unity, and things sure seem pretty bad already.

    The CFR seems to be about 0.6%, as estimated by the CDC and WHO. Seems that it is significantly lower in many places however.
  3.  
    Posted By: BigOilRepThe CFR seems to be about 0.6%, as estimated by the CDC and WHO. Seems that it is significantly lower in many places however.


    Every set of numbers I run gives me a Case Fatality Rate result between 3 and 4 percent. I'm talking about identified cases and verified deaths, not estimates.

    For example this site right now is reporting 21,051,614 cases and 752,367 deaths, worldwide, and for the USA alone it is reporting 170,259 deaths and 5,410,937 cases. Do the math. Have I misplaced a decimal point? Is there data that I'm missing?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#page-top

    Can you cite reported actual numbers that support your "0.6 percent" claim? Or are you just citing estimates from models?
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeAug 13th 2020 edited
     
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/mass-antibody-study-finds-3-4-million-in-england-had-covid-19

    Confirmed cases per million 4620: 0.4%
    Antibody positive per cent of the population 100* 3.4/66 =5.2%

    Since the infection rate is about ten times higher than the confirmed case rate, the fatality rate per infection should be a correspondingly reduced version of the fatality rate per confirmed case.
  4.  
    Posted By: BigOilRep

    But it seems to me that only a small increase in severity could push the pandemic over some kind of threshold, whereby it would indeed be a civlization-ending or extinction event. In terms of Case Fatality Ratio and infectivity parameter

    You love your doom porn. World population numbers will be higher next year, I will take a bet on that - it will probably grow by the usual 85 million and C19 won't even dent it.

    Posted By: alsetalokinRight now we seem to have CFR about 3 percent and Rnought slightly over unity, and things sure seem pretty bad already.

    The CFR seems to be about 0.6%, as estimated by the CDC and WHO. Seems that it is significantly lower in many places however.


    I'm glad everything is going to be all right, then. You have eased my mind considerably. I think I can finally go grocery shopping without worrying that someone is going to sneeze on me. Tell me, do you wear a mask when you are out in public? If so... why? What about seatbelts when you drive? After all, you have proved that this pandemic is an insignificant problem compared to all the other things out there that are trying to kill your grandmother. So why bother to worry about any of them? You can't control your exposure to second-hand tobacco smoke, or to idiots driving and drinking, or to your maid who just came back from visiting her TB-ridden home town in the third world, can you, so why worry about any of it? After all, nobody gets out of this alive, so suck it up and die like an aviator. That's the only attitude that makes any sense, right? The virus isn't affecting _you_, so why worry about it.
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    Posted By: Angushttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/mass-antibody-study-finds-3-4-million-in-england-had-covid-19

    Confirmed cases per million 4620: 0.4%
    Antibody positive per cent of the population 100* 3.4/66 =5.2%

    Since the infection rate is about ten times higher than the confirmed case rate, the fatality rate per infection should be a correspondingly reduced version of the fatality rate per confirmed case.


    Should be, but is it?. People are comparing real deaths to imaginary projections of infection rate. Find a set of real numbers comparing actual deaths and actual identified cases. Why does this result always hover between 3 and 4 percent? Why do 80 percent of intubated patients wind up dying? Why do even mild cases often result in long term sequelae and arguably shortened lifespans? More importantly, why do people keep on minimizing the terrible effects of this disease?

    And why doesn't anyone actually care to answer the question I posed at the beginning? What CFR and Rnought combination would cause even BOR to start worrying, and how far away from those numbers are we, really?
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeAug 14th 2020
     
    Posted By: alsetalokinFind a set of real numbers comparing actual deaths and actual identified cases.


    Yabbut what do you consider to be actual identified cases? The antibody study seems about the only way to include asymptomatic cases, which seems to be most of them.

    Looking at the death rates on symptomatic cases seems to me to be making the error that T-word made in that Axios interview. It only measures the effectiveness of the medical interventions.
  6.  
    Posted By: alsetalokinI predict USA total CoVid-19 deaths to be 135-138 thousand at the end of August as the daily new death rate approaches zero.

    There may be a lull before a devastating Second Wave during fall and winter, or deaths may continue at a low but relatively steady rate for the next indefinite time period.

    Or... the effects of the "reopening" and the unrest have not yet been seen, and we will have to revise our estimations when they start showing up in the curves.




    Posted By: alsetalokin
    Posted By: DuracellI still think the evidence suggesting that the IFR is significantly higher than 0.5% is growing and I suspect that the range between 1.4% and 2.0% that I suggested might not be as far off the mark as you think.

    I keep getting around 2.5% from reported numbers, and it doesn't seem to get much lower as more and more widespread testing is included.
    But as testing becomes widespread there is also confusion about antibody vs. active virus testing. Some locales report them separately, some lump them together, some don't report in a timely manner, etc. Chaos trickles down.


    Ah, the halcyon days of early summer. I made those posts on June 3rd.

    In case nobody noticed, we've already exceeded my "pessimistic" prediction by far, and it's getting worse.
  7.  
    Posted By: Angus
    Posted By: alsetalokinFind a set of real numbers comparing actual deaths and actual identified cases.


    Yabbut what do you consider to be actual identified cases? The antibody study seems about the only way to include asymptomatic cases, which seems to be most of them.

    Looking at the death rates on symptomatic cases seems to me to be making the error that T-word made in that Axios interview. It only measures the effectiveness of the medical interventions.


    At this point I am even skeptical of the antibody tests. How specific are they? Is there cross-immunity from the 4 or 9 or howevermany CVs that are not novel and do cause the common cold? Do the antibody tests that exist now say anything about duration or even the presence of actual immunity to the specific novel coronavirus that causes CoVid-19?
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeAug 14th 2020
     
    Posted By: alsetalokinAt this point I am even skeptical of the antibody tests. How specific are they?


    For my purpose in the post it doesn't matter. They indicate previous infection, and that was the point.