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    Posted By: AngusAh. Maybe not a bad idea. But try it on somebody else first, please.
    I can think of one or two possible subjects...
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    A Mortician's view:

    Handling the Coronavirus Dead in New York

    (there is porn of everything on the 'net)
    • CommentAuthorAsterix
    • CommentTimeApr 14th 2020 edited
     
    I wonder if Caitlin can speak if her arms are immobilized.

    Personally, when I go, my instruction in my will is to "take what you need dispose of the rest in a legal manner". Given my lifetime of abuse, a hazmat landfill might be appropriate.
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      CommentAuthoralsetalokin
    • CommentTimeApr 14th 2020 edited
     
    Whoopee! Texas has made it into the Top Ten New Deaths category, coming in at Number 8 with 23 new deaths reported today.

    "I have good news and bad news...."
    The good news is that the number is small in absolute terms... today. The bad news is that the exponential rise is clearly just beginning for Texas.
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    Posted By: AsterixI wonder if Caitlin can speak if her arms are immobilized.

    It might be fun to find out... just kidding, lol. She doesn't look enough like Yvonne De Carlo to ring my bells, exactly.


    Personally, when I go, my instruction in my will is to "take what you need dispose of the rest in a legal manner". Given my lifetime of abuse, a hazmat landfill might be appropriate.


    I think I know what you mean. An old friend has several exhusbands buried or scattered on her 10-acre homestead near Austin. I'm pretty sure she did it legally but there are rumours about why the water in the cistern is always so foul...
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    Using today's USA numbers on worldometers, there have been 3,142,244 tests performed so far, and 618,893 total cases identified, and 26,334 deaths. The deaths per case numbers yield a CFR of around 4.3 percent. Assuming one test per person and a population of 327,000,000, we can estimate a prevalence of about 20 percent, giving an estimated total of 65,400,000 infected. Say 80 percent of those do not present clinically. That leaves around 13,080,000 hospitalizations. Applying the astonishing CFR of 4.3 per cent to that figure gives a bit over 560,000 deaths expected in the USA in this first wave of the pandemic.

    Please tell me I'm wrong.
    • CommentAuthorAsterix
    • CommentTimeApr 15th 2020
     
    I think that you're assuming that tests are given to asymptomatic subjects. To the best of my knowledge, only politicians and sick people are currently tested.
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeApr 15th 2020
     
    Posted By: alsetalokinUsing today's USA numbers on worldometers, there have been 3,142,244 tests performed so far, and 618,893 total cases identified, and 26,334 deaths. The deaths per case numbers yield a CFR of around 4.3 percent. Assuming one test per person and a population of 327,000,000, we can estimate a prevalence of about 20 percent, giving an estimated total of 65,400,000 infected. Say 80 percent of those do not present clinically. That leaves around 13,080,000 hospitalizations. Applying the astonishing CFR of 4.3 per cent to that figure gives a bit over 560,000 deaths expected in the USA in this first wave of the pandemic.

    Please tell me I'm wrong.

    You are wrong.
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      CommentAuthoralsetalokin
    • CommentTimeApr 15th 2020 edited
     
    Posted By: AsterixI think that you're assuming that tests are given to asymptomatic subjects. To the best of my knowledge, only politicians and sick people are currently tested.


    So what does that do to the prevalence estimate?

    After all, 20 percent is a very _low_ estimate of the true prevalence according to the "experts" who are predicting 65-80 percent before it is countered by an effective and widespread vaccination program.
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    Posted By: BigOilRep
    Posted By: alsetalokinUsing today's USA numbers on worldometers, there have been 3,142,244 tests performed so far, and 618,893 total cases identified, and 26,334 deaths. The deaths per case numbers yield a CFR of around 4.3 percent. Assuming one test per person and a population of 327,000,000, we can estimate a prevalence of about 20 percent, giving an estimated total of 65,400,000 infected. Say 80 percent of those do not present clinically. That leaves around 13,080,000 hospitalizations. Applying the astonishing CFR of 4.3 per cent to that figure gives a bit over 560,000 deaths expected in the USA in this first wave of the pandemic.

    Please tell me I'm wrong.

    You are wrong.


    Whew, that's a relief.

    Care to show your working?
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeApr 15th 2020
     
    Posted By: Asterixpoliticians and sick people are currently tested.
    Arguably there is small distinction there.
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeApr 15th 2020
     
    Posted By: alsetalokinAfter all, 20 percent is a very _low_ estimate of the true prevalence according to the "experts" who are predicting 65-80 percent before it is countered by an effective and widespread vaccination program.


    Yes. I recently saw somewhere a reference to a Chinese study which found that more than 50% of a population had been infected and the great majority of them had been asymptomatic infections.

    Which leads to a strange conclusion. In much of the world now the measured infection rates are already peaking. What would be a possible mechanism for that? If the virus isn't becoming less infectious, it must mean that it is running out of people to infect. This might be because of the great discipline with which social isolation has been applied (questionable), but maybe it might be because the cryptic infections have become so numerous that the famous "herd immunity" is already being reached in places like China, Italy, Spain, Germany etc.

    Which might give Wee Donald some ammunition to do something stupid because infection rates do not appear to have peaked in the US.
    • CommentAuthorAsterix
    • CommentTimeApr 15th 2020 edited
     
    Posted By: alsetalokinAfter all, 20 percent is a very _low_ estimate of the true prevalence according to the "experts" who are predicting 65-80 percent before it is countered by an effective and widespread vaccination program.


    Do we know that for all populations? Is the prevalence in, say, Chugwater, Wyoming also 20% increasing to 80%?

    One thing that the Orange Idiot has said is true: we are all not New Yorkers.
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      CommentAuthoralsetalokin
    • CommentTimeApr 15th 2020 edited
     
    We are all not _yet_ New Yorkers. Even if some of us are jelly donuts already. South Dakota posted 180 new cases just last night.

    And look at the numbers from China. Even with the questionable reporting, they are already on the _third_ wave of infections.
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      CommentAuthorDuracell
    • CommentTimeApr 15th 2020
     
    Posted By: alsetalokinApplying the astonishing CFR of 4.3 per cent to that figure gives a bit over 560,000 deaths expected in the USA in this first wave of the pandemic.

    Please tell me I'm wrong.
    You are not wrong ...
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      CommentAuthorpcstru
    • CommentTimeApr 15th 2020
     
    Posted By: AngusThis might be because of the great discipline with which social isolation has been applied (questionable),

    Why questionable? It is not questionable from here in my little corner of the UK. Behaviour has changed massively.
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    • CommentAuthorAsterix
    • CommentTimeApr 15th 2020
     
    Posted By: alsetalokinWe are all not _yet_ New Yorkers. Even if some of us are jelly donuts already. South Dakota posted 180 new cases just last night.

    And look at the numbers from China. Even with the questionable reporting, they are already on the _third_ wave of infections.


    There are areas that may never see CV-19. There is, in some areas, de facto social distancing. There are areas that almost nobody visits.

    It would be a mistake to assume that everyone lives in an urban environment.
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      CommentAuthoralsetalokin
    • CommentTimeApr 15th 2020 edited
     
    Is it a mistake to assume that everyone has to eat? And that therefore someone has to go somewhere to get something for them to eat?

    Is it a mistake to assume that there are no regions on this planet so isolated that nobody ever gets a common cold or influenza?

    Maybe there are.... like deep in the remaining Amazon rainforest, or on North Sentinel Island...