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Posted By: alsetalokinPosted By: BigOilRepPosted By: alsetalokinUsing today's USA numbers on worldometers, there have been 3,142,244 tests performed so far, and 618,893 total cases identified, and 26,334 deaths. The deaths per case numbers yield a CFR of around 4.3 percent. Assuming one test per person and a population of 327,000,000, we can estimate a prevalence of about 20 percent, giving an estimated total of 65,400,000 infected. Say 80 percent of those do not present clinically. That leaves around 13,080,000 hospitalizations. Applying the astonishing CFR of 4.3 per cent to that figure gives a bit over 560,000 deaths expected in the USA in this first wave of the pandemic.
Please tell me I'm wrong.
You are wrong.
Whew, that's a relief.
Care to show your working?
Posted By: alsetalokinPrevalence data from New York indicates approx. 14 percent have antibodies. This brings the CFR in NY down to about 0.5 percent.
If full herd immunity needs about 60 percent then four times the current total fatalities may be expected in NY.
Posted By: BigOilRepHow this would work in practice, I've no idea. However I suspect there will be staggered return to work, with the youngest "unlocking" first. Schools would be first back in operation, as children barely notice the thing.
Posted By: GrowlerPosted By: BigOilRepHow this would work in practice, I've no idea. However I suspect there will be staggered return to work, with the youngest "unlocking" first. Schools would be first back in operation, as children barely notice the thing.
But only if they have very young, fit, teachers? It would be a good way to wipe out the wealth of experience in the teaching profession - fill their workplace with asymptomatic young carriers who WON'T socially distance themselves whatever they (the teachers) try to do....
Posted By: BigOilRepSocial distancing will be very difficult to implement in schools, especially for younger children. "Unlocking" the children in schools first would also unlock their parents and siblings, their teachers and their teachers' spouses, children and parents, etc.Posted By: GrowlerPosted By: BigOilRepHow this would work in practice, I've no idea. However I suspect there will be staggered return to work, with the youngest "unlocking" first. Schools would be first back in operation, as children barely notice the thing.
But only if they have very young, fit, teachers? It would be a good way to wipe out the wealth of experience in the teaching profession - fill their workplace with asymptomatic young carriers who WON'T socially distance themselves whatever they (the teachers) try to do....
The great majority of teachers are under 60, but those with comorbidities should obviously stay away or be risk assessed in some way.
This would all need to be done with extensive testing, contact tracing and isolating the symptomatic. The fact is we can't lock down for ever, and schools have to get back in operation. It might not be next week, or next month but it will happen and we have to work out the safest way to do that.
Posted By: DuracellSocial distancing will be very difficult to implement in schools, especially for younger children. "Unlocking" the children in schools first would also unlock their parents and siblings, their teachers and their teachers' spouses, children and parents, etc.
It might make more sense to first ease up on unnecessary restrictions (e.g. you can go for an unnecessary drive or walk just to get out of the house as long as you maintain social distancing), and then to try to "unlock" the places where social distancing can more easily and feasibly be implemented and maintained (e.g. shops and workplaces that, by virtue of the types of work being done there and the physical layout of the premises involved, can easily and feasibly accommodate and facilitate social distancing between staff and customers), before then moving on to the more difficult challenges such as pubs, restaurants, schools and sporting events etc.
When do you think the riots will kick off in earnest? My prediction for the UK is June ...
Posted By: alsetalokinChildren's schools and day cares should be the _last_ places to open up. In fact they should remain closed until a vaccine is widely in use.
Posted By: alsetalokinI see no reason why, in this modern day and age, the kids cannot use their network devices to attend virtual classes, perform and turn in homework,
If you don't believe we adults get sick from our children bringing home diseases from school, I just don't know what to say to you. "Ostrich" is not a verb.