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      CommentAuthorpcstru
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013
     
    Posted By: PJHJoshs, you are silly to offer to bet with me,


    Right. It's attention seeking time again and by now Josh's should know you know you will have nothing to show.
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      CommentAuthorE-Man
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013
     
    Posted By: PJHJoshs, you are silly to offer to bet with me, you need to save your pennies to see a psychiatrist on March 4.

    Is that a "no I won't bet"? or...
    • CommentAuthorjoshs
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013
     
    Posted By: PJHJoshs, you are silly to offer to bet with me, you need to save your pennies to see a psychiatrist on March 4.
    Care to bet on that?
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      CommentAuthorgenesis
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013
     
    (FACEPALM)
    • CommentAuthortinker
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013
     
    From the Swiss Patent Organisation 'IP search' website- google translate from German. Link to a subscription only article -make of it what you will.

    Positive side effects of technology for controlled nuclear fusion: a patent analysis
    04.12.2012
    Four patent experts from ip-search have examined the patent activities in the field of controlled nuclear fusion and thereby assess the role of this emerging technology as a catalyst for inventions in other technological areas. Based on statistics of patent publications and citations they have tried to determine how other technological areas have benefited from the nuclear fusion research. It did not matter whether the resulting technology has been funded directly ("spin-off") or indirectly developed from the research results ("spillover"). Which appeared in the December 2012 Edition of the journal "World Patent Information" article presents the methodological approach:
    • Identification of patents in the field of nuclear fusion research by searching for classes and keywords are: The high point of the patent activity in this area lies in the 1980s, the number of patents that the fusion contain related keywords, but are not classified as related inventions . the mid-1980s and then begins to increase steadily increasing
    • Creation of a patent landscape by using text mining: The increasing number of publications with certain key terms has been used to identify scientific occupations. It could be made ​​between areas related to nuclear fusion, and those for which there is in patent descriptions only a verbal reprimand included on fusion technology.
    • Analysis of later patent applications: A statistical examination of the patent classes of patents that reference previous classified fusion patents enables the identification technological areas that have benefited from the nuclear fusion research.
    The results of this study show that using patent statistics traced not only the development of a technology, but also the mutually beneficial effect of not fully implementable technology can be analyzed. Thus, positive side effects of nuclear fusion research are identified for other technology areas.
    Link to article in the journal World Patent Information: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0172219012000816 />to overview
  1.  
    Posted by Abd:
    Posted by Cude:
    A correlation between heat and helium is clearly an important and definitive experiment for cold fusion. And yet, the best you can point to is a review by someone who took (and possible still takes) Rossi seriously. Anyone who suggests Rossi's demos represent evidence for nuclear reactions is not to be taken seriously.


    This is the same pure ad-hominem argument presented earlier in this discussion by Mary Yugo. Storms' personal authority is not the issue at all.


    Storms is the one analyzing a collection of data, so yes, his authority, or lack of it, is relevant.


    Storms had (as some others have) private evidence that he apparently considered made it like that Rossi has *something*.


    Storms wrote an analysis of the public objections to one of Rossi's public demos, and Rothwell posted it in vortex. He concluded, based on publicly available information: "BASIC CONCLUSION:  None of the plausible assumptions are consistent with the claim for excess energy being wrong."

    That was simply wrong, and along with the rest of that analysis revealed Storms to be incompetent at ordinary evaluation of evidence.


    This idea that if someone makes a judgment one disagrees with, they are therefore discredited in all other judgments they make is a pseudoskeptical trope.


    When it's a judgement of a rather simple claim, and it is so fundamentally wrong, and it is favors his life's calling, then yes, his gullibility is reason enough to remain highly skeptical of any of his judgements on the subject.
    • CommentAuthorenginerd
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013
     
    Having not stopped by the moletrap over the weekend, I popped in today and tried to read this thread. I made it through a few pages but have now decided to use time-travel (is that cool or what) to jump to the future and see what it's like here before continuing. No flying cars so far observed. Abd's self prophesied departure not yet realized.

    As you were. I will return (to thread somewhen).

    Keep at it Abd, you're stay here is reaching heroic proportions. Who knows what you might achieve. I have been hanging around here for years, and you may already have contributed more lifetime ASCII here than I have. Don't give up.
    • CommentAuthorenginerd
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013
     
    Posted By: PJH
    Posted By: Angus
    Posted By: PJH
    Posted By: AngusJust think how much more impressive that would have been as "Feb 4 is when I post the glorious results of the quencos built in Dec!"


    Indeed it would have been, but it will be all the better for the wait.

    Alas it was out of my hands, something to do with woo started 2000 years ago.


    I think you missed my point, which was - that it would be better, given the history so far, to have results in hand before saying anything at all.


    Why?


    Well, no matter what you goal is for the technology, it seems that it would be better supported by a surrounding credibility. In a world where things can go wrong (and in your world you have experienced this), a proven method of maintaining credibility is to not make claims that are not already in hand. This works especially well with the kind of short lead times you have here, and when you are not trying to raise resources for the short term goal. Just hold the tongue for four weeks and voila, success and credibility, or and unexpected delay and no loss in credibility.

    I started working my way backwards on this thread (I have found many things read better backwards including a couple of textbooks I was assigned). It appears that maybe Abd has departed.
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      CommentAuthormaryyugo
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013
     
    Posted By: PJHThanks for that, I can recycle it!
    Like you recycle everything else?
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      CommentAuthorE-Man
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013
     
    Posted By: enginerdI have found many things read better backwards

    The lyrics to "Another One Bites the Dust" for example.

    I admit I understand confidence in a result when someone has done a lot of work. I've been part of that myself. However I don't understand *sustained* confidence too much in the midst of so much failure. I've been involved in projects where one thing went wrong and the solution was clear and we hit the revised deadline or even places where we didn't and hit the revised, revised deadline. However in each case nobody was being asked for something that had not been done hundreds or thousands of times before.

    Perhaps that's the thing PJH is confusing. I do know that the timelines he keeps giving are not something that garners confidence.
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      CommentAuthorpcstru
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013
     
    Posted By: enginerdIt appears that maybe Abd has departed.


    What, again?
  2.  
    Hey, people do need to sleep once in a while. But maybe you are right, since Cude gave him such a trouncing.
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      CommentAuthorE-Man
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013 edited
     
    Abd - live from is favorite gazing poolAs I wrote, moletrap is not polite society. Far from it. It's a sneering bar crowd. If that's what you like, fine. You can be a big frong in a small pond. I prefer to hang out with the scientists, actively engaged in research.

    Apparently he wants to go back to hang out with the scientists actively engaged in research. Something I doubt actually happens or at least doesn't quite happen the way he thinks it does. For example I met Coxeter, he was very nice to me, we talked math. I'm pretty sure I could have taken him to lunch - I rarely meet a professor who turns down good food. However it seemed pretty clear that he was being polite. Abd doesn't really seem like he has much of a clue about social mores and also has a habit (or perhaps need to) overstate his importance so I don't really take him seriously about being involved with these things.

    Abd - as usual admiring himself
    It's going much more deeply than I'm saying. I've been trained in communication, not as a writer, but as a speaker.

    Could anyone imaging actually listening to one of those posts being read?
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      CommentAuthormaryyugo
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013 edited
     
    Talking about recycling, it is interesting, in retrospect, to relook the article about Rossi which appeared in Wired 6 November 2011 after the 28 October "megawatt plant demo". The comments are especially interesting. Joshua and I are taken to task for prematurely beating up on Rossi. All the usual believer nonsense is regurgitated. Where are those believers (especially "Ben") now?

    http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2011-11/06/cold-fusion-heating-up?

    Hank Mills, as usual, makes hilarious remarks. For example, I'm a paid shill! I wish.

    In reply to Truthseeker

    I totally agree that Mary Yugo's posts should be ignored. She and a group of other hard core cynics travel around the internet trolling on any site that dares to speak positively about exotic energy technologies. She and the skeptic army from Moletrap is well know for aggressively attacking any claim that does not "fit inside of the box." On PESN she has probably made hundreds of negative comments over the years about dozens of exotic technologies. I'm 99% sure she is not just a troll, but a paid one.
    Hank Mills
    Nov 7th 2011


    How many of Hank's prized technology predictions have come true so far? Absolutely zero.
  3.  
    Posted By: E-ManCould anyone imaging actually listening to one of those posts being read?
    He may be trained as a speaker, but not as a listener.
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      CommentAuthormaryyugo
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013
     
    Posted By: alsetalokinBut maybe you are right, since Cude gave him such a trouncing.
    Cude follows this stuff way closer than I do. I am somewhat agnostic about the subtle claims of excess heat and I have no idea what can go wrong in helium measurements (though I recall a very old leak detector once that was pretty flaky). My interest is in the exorbitant claims like Rossi and Defkalion, Nanospire, BLP and Miley -- claims that appear to be clearly and flagrantly hoaxing and scamming and which go on and on without clear demonstrations when such demonstrations would be extremely easy if the claims were real.
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      CommentAuthorE-Man
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013 edited
     
    Posted By: maryyugoTalking about recycling, it is interesting, in retrospect, to relook the article about Rossi which appeared in Wired 6 November 2011

    This got me thinking. So I took a quick look in the furnace room (My son has a mild fever which ridiculously keeps him out of preschool so I'm home) and pulled up my May/June 1994 copy of MIT Technology Review - Cold Fusion Heats Up.

    If anyone wants I can summarize or even type the article. IIRC it was about replication attempts of P&F - focusing on microfractures in palladium as the reason for lack of replication. Might be a laugh just seeing where the people involved are now.
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      CommentAuthormaryyugo
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013 edited
     
    Posted By: E-Man(My son has a mild fever which ridiculously keeps him out of preschool so I'm home)
    Off topic but it's not ridiculous. He is probably contagious and the school may have some students whose immune systems are weaker than his. Why risk making them sick also, perhaps with a more unpleasant and dangerous case of whatever it is he has?
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      CommentAuthorE-Man
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013 edited
     
    My humble understanding is that fever is far more a specific test than a sensitive one. The 24h period that I'm going to keep him out of school for isn't going to strongly influence the level of infection in his class. Especially when school is the most likely vector of said infection.

    EDT: If this was the flu I'd of course act differently. For both his sake and his fellows. Viral shedding correlates strongly with being symptomatic in the flu.
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      CommentAuthormaryyugo
    • CommentTimeFeb 4th 2013
     
    Posted By: E-ManMy humble understanding is that fever is far more a specific test than a sensitive one.
    Sorry, I don't know what that means. Fever is one reaction to an active infection. In this case, it's likely to be a virus but in fact, you don't KNOW what it is. It's a reasonable precaution to keep the child home to avoid infecting others. For example, an unlikely (but remotely possible) cause of fever is meningitis. Surely, you wouldn't want risking further spread of such a thing, even if he got the original germs from the school.