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      CommentAuthorTrim
    • CommentTimeJan 29th 2014 edited
     
    ABG

    Hyperloop Transportation Technologies company formed to make Musk's idea real.

    http://green.autoblog.com/2013/11/08/hyperloop-transportation-technologies-company-formed-to-make-mus/



    Elon Musk: I'll Build A Hyperloop Prototype If No One Else Does.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-wants-to-build-hyperloop-model-2013-11
  1.  
    For sure someone was going to pick it up. Good to see such industry luminaries pitching in - it makes it more likely to succeed. In particular Galloway has navigated the public transportation thicket in a major city already.
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeJan 29th 2014
     
    Posted By: TrimElon Musk: I'll Build A Hyperloop Prototype If No One Else Does.

    Has he got $100 billion?
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeJan 29th 2014
     
    Reminds me of the old joke:

    What's the best way to become a millionaire?
    Start as a billionaire and open an airline hyperloop
  2.  
    You're confused. That's the price tag for the government alternative - you know, the socialist pinko panty-waisted folks who spend sonoboy's tax dollars. Musk's is less than ten times that.
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeJan 29th 2014
     
    So this is a fixed-cost project?
  3.  
    Sure!
    Costs will balloon from initial estimates as they always do. So whatever scheme is picked, bloat is unavoidable.
    •  
      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeJan 30th 2014
     
    Posted By: Andrew PalfreymanSure!
    Costs will balloon from initial estimates as they always do. So whatever scheme is picked, bloat is unavoidable.


    Why should I feel reassured to hear that Musk's incorrect estimate of costs is ten times less than the government's incorrect estimate of costs.
  4.  
    If reassuring you consists of estimating the highest possible costs, then you must feel extremely reassured about this.
    •  
      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeJan 30th 2014
     
    It doesn't and I don't.
  5.  
    I should hope so.
    •  
      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeJan 30th 2014
     
    Then why suggest it?
  6.  
    What else is available to discuss but estimates, when nothing is yet built?

    Why do you assume that Musk's estimate of costs is "incorrect"?

    You had better have read the cost analysis he published. But you haven't, have you?
    You're playing the disaffected Muppet geriatric spitting from the balcony, aren't you?

    Enjoy.
    •  
      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeJan 30th 2014
     
    Posted By: Andrew PalfreymanWhat else is available to discuss but estimates, when nothing is yet built?

    Why do you assume that Musk's estimate of costs is "incorrect"?



    Actually, because that's what you told me:
    Posted By: Andrew PalfreymanSure!
    Costs will balloon from initial estimates as they always do. So whatever scheme is picked, bloat is unavoidable.



    You had better have read the cost analysis he published. But you haven't, have you?

    As perhaps you will remember from our earlier discussion I have read Mr Musk's release and deduced from it that he had no way of keeping the vehicle cool. I still have not heard a solution to that one. From this I further deduce that no cost estimate could possibly be reliable.

    You're playing the disaffected Muppet geriatric spitting from the balcony, aren't you?

    Enjoy.


    Be nice or I'll have Kermit and the boys come over and drop a froggy log in your cornflakes.
  7.  
    The bottom line is that the ratio of estimates is about 10:1. You know darn well that neither project is fixed cost.

    I don't recall the thermal analysis being an Achilles' Heel for Hyperloop. Is this assertion based on any sort of fact?
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeJan 30th 2014 edited
     
    There was a considerable deal of discussion on that issue right here at the time. I recall other discussion groups where the same issue had been raised. If a solution arose I never heard about it.

    Oh, and if two projects are proposed with a 10 to 1 cost difference between them, but the costs of both are unreliable by a factor of ten, which one should I pick?
  8.  
    The percent cost overrun figures being equal, and the probabilities of overrun being equal, why pick the more expensive one? - especially with such a massive cost difference.

    Was the overheating theory based on the density of the air being too high? or some other factor?
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      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeJan 30th 2014
     
    My concern was that the vehicle was dissipating something like 700kW while travelling in a near vacuum. Peopleproposed all kinds of solutions from swapping out tanks of boiling water to I don't know what. How can you possibly have forgotten this?
    • CommentAuthorBigOilRep
    • CommentTimeJan 30th 2014 edited
     
    Posted By: Andrew PalfreymanThe percent cost overrun figures being equal, and the probabilities of overrun being equal, why pick the more expensive one?

    Well, the lower estimate comes from the guy selling the project and the high one comes from independent assessment - a Collage Professor, no less. It’s pretty obvious why we might think the higher one is more realistic, unless you are emotionally sold on the project already.

    http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/08/15/could-the-hyperloop-really-cost-6-billion-critics-say-no/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=1

    $10B is laughable price tag for a modern infrastructure project. The UK is spending $60B upgrading a rail line to high speed. New York is spending $18B on 2 miles of metro line. Both of those projects involve tried and tested technologies. Musk could easily sink $10B into R&D, before a single piece of track is built.

    I’m sure Musk himself knows the estimate is unrealistic, but he’s a salesman.
    •  
      CommentAuthorAngus
    • CommentTimeJan 30th 2014 edited